Guru's Golden Picks: Arena Week 3

[AFLGuru]

Cards looks a bit tighter this week. HOWEVER. BIG game between Orlando and Tampa. Not just homing this one...

Orlando (pk) vs. Tampa Bay (5 units +123): Yep, take the Preds at the pick 'em against the Storm. Bid 'em all the way up. Don't bother futzing with the 2 points. Tampa has perhaps looked the strongest side in the AFL through two weeks. However: This game isn't at home. This game is in the Jungle. The Preds hardly ever lose at home, especially to the Storm. Expect this game to be an UGLY game with many many skirmishes and fights. The War on I-4 is the bloodiest in the game, and this version will be no exception with both teams out of the gate 2-0. Orlando's defense is the best in the AFL by far, and Tampa's offense has exploited two straight defenses for a ton of points. Tampa won't reach 50 in this game. If Orlando offense can keep the defense off the field and not commit more than 1 turnover, Orlando will win this game by more than a TD. Expect this line to close Orlando -2.5 or so, as it probably should be. Orlando shouldn't be getting points at home against anyone, especially Tampa.

San Jose @ New Orleans over 99 (3 units -105): San Jose comes into this game having slammed New Orleans last year. SJ was the only team to really dominate the Voodoo at any point. Mark Grieb looked more like Mark Grieb against Las Vegas, putting up 6 TDs. Don't worry about missing James Hundon (though he might make the season debut this week. He's eligible to come off IR). New Orleans still continues to shoot it out with the deep ball just about as much as any other team. When Vegas catches onto this, I'm not so sure. But New Orleans will go over the total for the 3rd straight game this week, as Andy Kelly will continue to throw the ball deep to his very big wide receivers, including a 6'6" Thabiti Davis. People look at San Jose's defense and saw how they shut out Las Vegas in the 2nd half. Yes, Las Vegas, sans Marcus Nash. Without him their offense is mediocre at best. Expect the Voodoo to give San Jose their best shot. Both teams should hit the 50 point mark in what will turn out to be a pretty close game.

That's it for now. Again, it looks like a bit of a tight card. I'm going to wait a bit to see how the public is going to move these lines. Some leans, but I'll probably wait until game day and make them much smaller plays. These are the big boys this time around. Best of luck on your action.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[degenerategambler]

Orlando already even money, and total on SJ already now 102..... Wouldya still play them?

 

[AFLGuru]

Orlando's a solid play anywhere up to about -2 or -2.5. The over/under is solid until about 105.

I'd say if Orlando gets to about -3.5 or so that it can no longer be a 5 unit wager. How about this... at -2.5 or -3, make it a 4 star wager. At -3.5 to -5, make it a 3 star wager. Anything more is too many points.

These lines are gonna fly again. Maybe Orlando will do what New York did any close at -7... That'd be sick.

--AFLGuru

 

[TOMMYB]

NICE START TO THE SEASON GURU.

ANY TRUTH TO THE RUMR THAT ORLANDO GOT RID OF THEIR FG KICKER FOR ALL THE MISSED XTRA POINTS AND FG's . IF SO WHO's THE NEW GUY AND HOW MUCH PRACTICE HAS HE HAD AND IS HE ANY GOOD. THANKS FOR THE WINS SO FAR THIS SEASON .

 

[AFLGuru]

Orlando has ditched Steve McLaughlin. They haven't signed a new kicker yet, which, I'll admit, scares me a little bit. The guys that are supposed to be in the audition for this week are a bunch of kickers from former Orlando teams. The leading candidate for the job is supposedly Jason Wells, who was the hero in the last regular season game for the Preds last year when he nailed a 45 yarder as time expired to assure them a playoff birth. Whomever Orlando brings in to kick has to be better than McLaughlin was for the Preds. He took the wind out of their sails so many times over the course of the first two weeks it wasn't even funny. Didn't even hit 40% of his PATs...

Kickers tend to pull up as heroes against Tampa in Preds history... Back in the mid-90's this kid named Jorge Cimedivilia came out to kick for the first time for the Predators against Tampa. The kid missed 5 out of 6 PATs but hit two big FGs down the stretch and went on to miss a grand total of 1 PAT the rest of the season. He went on to be one of the greatest kickers in Predators, and then Storm history. David Cool and Jay Taylor both had their first big games against the Storm. Cool hit the game winning FG against Nashville to clinch Orlando's 2nd championship, and Taylor is now with the Bucs. So I'm confident whomever steps onto the field for Orlando as the kicker won't be a major issue.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[KennyB]

Already played Orlando @ a Pick. Line is now Orlando -2. Like the San Jose over 102.

I love doing AFL teasers. Here are my early teaser picks:

Orlando, San Jose over, Chicago, L.A. and Philthy.

 

[AFLGuru]

Can't say I really disagree with any of those. AFL teasers hit at an unusually high rate, particularly this season, so sometimes it can be a great strategy. Very often in the side of the game, teasing either direction works. Almost guarantee you that taking Tampa and Orlando will work... Game almost always finishes within a TD. Taking both sides of the LA/Austin game I think will work too.

 

[AFLGuru]

Time to stop on the San Jose/New Orleans game. 106 is too high. Orlando is still playable at -3.5, but I'll admit that that line has shot farther than I would've thought.

--AFLGuru

 

[Two-Niner]

Hey Guru... That brings up the question I was going to ask you. If these games finish fairly close and teasers work alot. Wouldn't these huge line movements make for some pretty nice middle opportunites? Think I might look into this, if Pinnacle etc.. are going to be so drastic with their line moves.

 

[AFLGuru]

Yes and no Two-Niner... Just because the teasers work doesn't mean that middling your number is going to work. I argue this with my roommate, Bud all the time. Middling your number is a good way to make a winning bet a juice eating bet. Even if you took Tampa right now at +4, yeah, anywhere between Orlando by 1 and 3 and you're a "double winner" but your percentages are much lower that you actually hit inside that range. When you're dealing with 7.5 points, it's much different than a spread of even 5 or 6. I said this on a different link... I've posted 7 plays that were based off of the opening line (coming into this week). I'm 5-1-1 ATS with the initial lines and 5-2 against the closing lines. Chicago and New York both crushed the final line in week 2, and in week 1, the under in the LA/LV game was 22 points under my line and 16 under the closing line, and Nashville ended +3.5 and won outright by 9. So to middle your number isn't necessarily always the wisest. Take your wins and run with them. I don't know if I'm going to hit at 83% the entire year on my opening lines or 73% on my general wagers, but I fully expect to tick the 60% mark for the year, and more often than not, middling your number won't work, especially if these trends continue.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[gobucks]

Too much value not to middle. Got Orlando Pick +123 and Tampa + 3.5 at +101.
That's 3 big points with no juice! Like you said Guru- these teams tend to play it close and the home team usually pulls it out. Let's hope so!

 

[ACE-ACE]

Home Team Has Won 10-6 Vs The Line
Fav Team Has Won 11-5 Vs The Line
Points That Matter In A Game Vs Line Are 1 In 16 Game 6% Of The Game
Dont Think About The Line....bet The Team That Will Win

You Could Bet A Game Like This...

Orl-4 ........................... For $500
Tb M/l If Its +140...bet $400 To Win $560
If Orl Win By 4 You Win ....................................+$100
If Tb Win You Lose 500 But Win..........................+ $60

If Orl Win By 1-2 Or 3...you Lose Both ....big If....

Something To Think About "a Bet That Wins 90% Of The Time"

 

[TampaLuke]

Come on Guru this is nonsense. The Storm is the premiere franchise in the AFL. We are the Patriots of the AFL. 5-1 in the Arenabowl. Orlando's record in the Bowl??????? A spectacular 2-4. We just polished off the defending Arenabowl champs and covered a two TD spread. Yes, both at home.

Let's not forget that the Preds are probably a little overvalued. That part I am serious about. Power ratings have the Storm around a two point fav before Home Field is factored in. Which going by the sets I have seen is around 2.25. If we use these numbers Predators are no better than -1 and that is being generous. However, I tend to think that home field is worth more in general in the AFL and especially in Orlando (all those name tags tend to create a distraction.) I would be willing to give the Preds as much as five full points for home field. This is a huge rivalry and the home crowd does get rowdy for the only team to ever win a championship in Disney town. So lets assume we only give the Storm two points for straight up advantage and the Preds five for home. Orlando -3. But is this really a good number?

I know you are confident in your kicker. What was his name again? But do you think that it is rational handicapping to say that any kicker will have success against the Storm based on a poor performance that happened to end with a couple of good kicks? Or just is it false confidence to assume automatic success by a yet to be signed kicker will do well against your arch rival?

Do you really think that the Orlando victories were equal to the Storm's? How did they win that first one? How well did Bonner play in the second one? I am not making assumptions, I just want you to rationalize your Preds a little more before you recklessly advise innocent bystanders to bet with your heart.

The truth is that the Storm are probably at least three points better than the Preds. But I would make Orlando -2 1/2 at home. Pinnacle has it at -4 right now. I am not ready to bet it. I am not that confident in my AFL abilities. I am more confident in yours. So I am going to lay off this game instead of backing the greatest franchise in the AFL against their hated rival. I hope you are happy Guru.

 

[AFLGuru]

Please note that this is clearly more BS talk by TampaLuke than anything else.

Congrats Tampa... You took advantage of a team without its best WR option and its best DB. You covered two TDs against... that's right, Austin. Congrats on your 5 Arena Bowls. Just remember the last time you took on Orlando in the game... in Tampa... and then the jokes... What do the Tampa Bay Storm and marijuana both have in common??? They both get smoked in a bowl. Biggest blow out in Arena Bowl history (before San Jose laid the smack down on Arizona I believe 4 years later).

Tampa and Orlando are on an even keel. Both teams are amongst the elite in the AFL. Orlando's defense is much more polished than Tampa's. It always has been and always will be. The reason this line didn't open up as a pick 'em is because Orlando has no clue who the kicker will be... Well, the Preds do, the books don't. Let's remember which team went through 5 kickers last year.... Look, I give Tampa ALL the respect in the world. I love to hate Tim Marcum, but he's great for the game. I've met the guy a few times (including sitting next to him at Fran Papasedero's funeral last year). Nice guy. Really nice guy. Shane Stafford hasn't seen a pass rush this good in a long time, nor has he seen the road this year. Congrats Tampa on your FIRST road test being in the Jungle. No, I'll never refer to it as The Jungle at Hummer Field at TD Waterhouse Centre... Disgusts me just thinking about it.

But the Preds have their Blackout night once again and I estimate would win this game probably 7 out of 10 times against Tampa in Orlando. Freaky stuff happens in the AFL, I'll admit and everyone knows... But that being said, the freakier stuff usually happens to the road team. Tampa has no DB big enough to deal with Cory Fleming. The only way they win this game is if they force Joe Hamilton into bad mistakes... which inevitably is going to happen at least twice in this game. But the key in this one. 8.5 stops per game. Yes, 8.5 stops per game. That's what the Preds defense is averaging. Tampa is averaging more than that, but again, congrats on beating San Jose without James Hundon and congrats on putting points on the board against Austin. Nice job Tampa.

Finally, I didn't recommend Orlando -4 for a very high stake. The city of Orlando and the Predators in general are massively hyped for this game, particularly defensely. They've already proved they can shut down anyone, and any more than 45 points allowed to Tampa would be unacceptable by the defense's standards... and trust me... if Tampa can't get to 50, they're not winning this game.

--AFLGuru:toast:
Tampa Still Sucks

 

[AFLGuru]

Orlando Predators kicking situation

Predators have signed former Grand Rapids kicker Brian Gowins for the remainder of the season. I don't know too much about Gowins, but this move kinda surprises me, as usually the Predators turn to old faces to fill their kicking voids (either that or local kickers that went to UCF or UF). Apparently he hit 82% of his PATs in his last full season, which is adequate enough for the Predators, since their current percentage is roughly half of that.

Gowins has been in practice since Monday night or Tuesday morning apparently. Just took a day or so to leak to the media.

Other notes on the game: SELLOUT. First sellout of the season in the Jungle. TampaLuke can correct me on this, but roughly 750-1000 Tampa fans usually make the trek to Orlando (and about 1250-1500 from Orlando take the trip to Tampa), meaning we're still looking at about 13000 Predator fans all wearing black for the first Blackout night of the year. I directly relate Blackout night for the Predators to "Battle Red" Day for the Texans (my pro team since I HATE all the teams in Florida except the Bucs). Texans are 2-0 SU and ATS when wearing the Battle Red's. The Predators near never lose when the TD Waterhouse is sold out. I believe the stat was something like 25-3 in their sellouts since year 2.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

Shame on me for forgetting.

Tampa Still Sucks

 

[TampaLuke]

Funny you should bring up losing in the Arenabowl. I mean nobody has done it more than Orlando. I would think losing in a championship wouldn't be something Orlando would want to talk about. If you combine the Magic and the Predators totals in Championship games they are 2-8. Congrats to the Predators for at least picking up the two wins.

I got a poll question for Arena cappers:

Which player is more important to their team?

Sherdrick Bonner (Arizona)

James Hundon (San Jose)

These are the top two franchises in the AFL but you can't compare the accomplishments between the two. We are Coke you are Pepsi, we are Macdonalds you are Burger King, we are the Yankees you are the Red Sox. Yes, we will allow you to win one every couple of decades.

 

[TampaLuke]

On a more serious handicapping note, how can you make the claims of success against the Storm in Orlando or anywhere lately. The Storm have won five straight. I will admit that I didn't really notice until today. I mean you have to go off recent form if you are going to consider an angle or trend, right? Marcum has clearly demonstrated his ability to take a team into the Jungle and win. I have to respectfully question your motives for backing Orlando in this spot. At the same time I fully recognize that I may be guilty of the same sin and I am nowhere near as informed about the AFL as you. I really want to hear from someone other than a Storm or Predator fan on this game.

The Storm have had recent success in the Jungle and against the Predators in general. Orlando pulled out a squeaker in the first game and beat a severly weakened Rattler team in week two. Tampa's victories both came at home and against a somewhat weakened San Jose team. The Storm have come out firing and Orlando has shown a certain moxy in their wins. If anything it is too close to call. I can't see backing a team that is on a losing streak against this week's foe, especially when the foe has shown no cracks and is getting points. Seems like a very tough spot for the Orlando backer.

 

[Hustler982]

Damn AFL, i hardly come in here bc football is over but wow judging from your post you really know ur stuff... i mean i dont know if its all correct (mainly bc i dont follow Arena football) but i am assuming it is. TampsLuke i wouldnt mess with this guy!
BOL this week AFL

 

[AFLGuru]

Correct, Tampa has won five straight against Orlando. In the most recent game, Tampa won on a bounce off the net late in the 4th quarter that went their way. Orlando dominated the game and fell apart with about 5:00 left in the game. Losing that kick destroyed them. The first game of the year last year wasn't even close. Joe Hamilton's first career game. Jitters happened. I don't remember the game before in Orlando in 2002. The game in Tampa was ugly once again... I remember going to that game and leaving about half way through the 4th quarter. In fairness to that though, I don't think Tampa lost a game at home that season en route to the Arena Bowl.

And Luke: Rings since Jay Gruden joined the Preds: 2. Rings since Jay Gruden left the Storm: 1.

To answer your question, James Hundon means less to the Sabercats. I think a monkey can run the San Jose offense and make it work... besides, having Schexnayder, Roe, and Wagner as your three top targets, and a kid that is lightning quick as a backup offensive specialist, it's no contest. Arizona needs Bonner to lead the charge, and have for years. If Bonner's out even 3 more weeks, Arizona's season's over. 10-6 isn't going to be good enough to get in for Arizona. Hell, 11-5 might leave someone out. Think about it??? San Jose is going to win the west walking away again. They'll win 12 or 13. Chicago and Colorado both appear as though they're going to win 11 games, despite early problems. Remember, Grand Rapids is on the schedule twice for the Rush and Crush. Then there's the West... granted, I think everyone is beating up everyone else in the West, possibly leaving room for a solid Nashville team that looks like a sneaky comparison of last year's Voodoo.... no hints intended of course..... Though someone will likely come out of the West as the 2nd wild card, the problem within says it almost has to be Vegas if it's going to happen. LA I'll still contend to be one of the worst teams in the game, and Arizona isn't a damn thing without Bonner. Until he comes back (if he comes back... I've heard rumors floating around that despite Bonner's condition getting better that he's contemplating that "r" word... after all, he's been around forever. Wouldn't surprise me in the least)... Arizona's in big trouble, especially the way their schedule pans out.

Have fun with @ Georgia, vs. Colorado, @ New York, vs. LA, @ Tampa, vs. Las Vegas, @ Nashville, @ San Jose. If Arizona wins 4 of these games I'd be VERY impressive, and can see them winning as few as two if they don't get Bonner back. They should beat either Georgia or Nashville, and the LA. Maybe either Vegas or Colorado at home as well. But that road schedule is a bastard. Good thing they started at Grand Rapids...

Anyway, the topic at hand. I've put my money where my mouth is about Orlando on the moneyline. You must admit that +122 or whatever it was is GREAT value on either home team in this series. I'm not highly recommending Orlando at -4, especially after Ace posted his views... And to be honest with you, I think we're both going to win. I think Orlando is going to win this game by less than a FG, with the home town crowd pulling the Preds to victory. That defense looks the best it's ever been, and the Preds have had some of the best defenses in AFL history. If they get to Shane Stafford early and often, he'll throw 3 or 4 picks and the Storm will go down hard. Though Tampa's defense has played well (at least for 1 and a half games... we won't mention the 2nd half of the Austin game when they dropped I believe it was 32 on you), it's not match for Orlando's defense. I've laid out all the keys to the game and believe that Orlando is going to win enough of those keys to win the game. And when the time comes around that Orlando plays Tampa in Tampa, I won't physically bet it, but I'll probably make it a board play to bet Tampa on the moneyline...

--AFLGuru:toast:
Tampa Still Sucks